Mercedes vs Ferrari: The long Italian Grand Prix leaves no clear favourite

after Charles Leclerc Leading Ferrari’s opening practice session, Mercedes responded in the more representative second practice session, with George Russell Determine the fastest time.
This is what made the long runs at the end of FP2 particularly interesting. It is an important indicator of the likely race pace for Sunday. However, the picture could not be less clear.
Once the long distances are adjusted to suit different task lengths and tire compounds, Ferrari and Mercedes are effectively equal. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton They were exactly equal in pace (+0.00 seconds), with George Russell only two-hundredths of a second a lap behind. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli was just 0.04 seconds off the pace a lap too.
Mercedes vs Ferrari: Is different power management the key?
With Monza’s long straights and relatively few turns, energy management plays a particularly important role. The two leading teams appear to have taken slightly different approaches: Mercedes appears to have gained more time at the start of the lap, while Ferrari appears to have regained it in the final sector.
George Russell clocked 27.044 seconds in the second practice session, the second fastest time in the opening sector behind him. Pierre Gasly (27.039 s). Ferrari, meanwhile, lost about one and a half to two tenths there, with Lewis Hamilton clocking 27.174 seconds and Charles Leclerc 27.259 seconds.
Mercedes was also fastest ever in the second sector, with a difference of 27.784 seconds. Ferrari lost almost another tenth in the more technical section at Monza, clocking 27.874 seconds. But in the final sector, the picture changed: Leclerc’s speed of 27.546 seconds was about a tenth faster than FP2 winner Russell’s 27.721 seconds.
Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari
Photography: Manuel Elito/Getty Images
Hence, Mercedes seems to be using a slightly better performance at the beginning of the lap, while Ferrari is regaining its strength towards the end. Who should now be considered the favorite to qualify, but the race is still not entirely clear. The gaps are incredibly narrow, and the smallest mistakes can cost several places in front.
McLaren Red Bull struggles outside the competition
At the very least, it seems clear that Mercedes and Ferrari are likely to compete for the top places. McLaren was around four tenths off the pace within one lap of FP2. But in the long run, Lando Norris It was just 0.19 seconds per lap outside the norm.
So Monza doesn’t seem to suit the MCL40 quite as well as the tighter, more technical circuits in Budapest and Zandvoort. Not surprisingly, the Papaya team performs best in the second sector of Monza, but loses a lot of time, especially in the last sector.
While McLaren has struggled in terms of top speed and overall efficiency throughout the season, the same cannot be said for Red Bull. Its internal combustion engine is the standard in Formula 1, while Red Bull also seems to be at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to aerodynamic drag.
However, Red Bull appears to be the fourth best team at best in the high-speed Monza scheme. The qualifying (+0.818s) and long-run (+0.22s) simulations point to this trend. The team seems to be somewhat closer when it comes to race speed, but the fundamental problem remains: the RB22 loses a lot of time through the corners in the first two sectors, and can no longer make up for this deficit on the straights.
Gabriel Bortoletto, Audi Formula 1 Team
Photography: Andy Hone/LAT Images via Getty Images
Audi Struggles as Alps Back to the midfield fight
The balance of power in the midfield also appears to have shifted somewhat as a result of the unique characteristics of the Monza track. while Bull racing He still appears to be leading the midfield, and the previously strong Audi team may have fallen back.
The works team seems to be particularly lacking in engine performance, which is particularly expensive at Monza. Combined with the average qualifying simulations (+1.173 seconds), the Audi’s long distances were also nothing to write home about.
Gabriel Bortoletto He managed only three laps before a technical issue ended his career. His teammate Nico Hulkenberg It was 1.42 seconds per lap off the norm in his most representative career.
This left Audi not only behind the Racing Bulls (+0.72), but also behind Alpine (+0.88). Williams (+1.24) and Haas (+1.28).
Aston Martin also appears to be struggling after showing improved performance recently. Fernando Alonso He was unable to complete any meaningful long laps, while Lance Stroll’s was 3.94 seconds per lap slower than the standard. This left Aston Martin behind Cadillac (+2.20) once again.
After Friday training sessions, assessing the strategic picture should be much easier than evaluating the competitive system itself. Long distances showed no significant tire degradation on any of the three vehicles. As a result, a one-stop strategy on all possible tire combinations appears to be better than a double-stop strategy on Sunday.
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