The big Xbox exclusivity debate: SHOULD Fallout 5 and The Elder Scrolls 6 be Xbox console exclusive?
Console war. Console war never changes. Or well, maybe a little bit.
You all know the story. Xbox ran away from exclusives a couple of years ago to boost margins, but all it ended up doing was hollowing out their own platform, with first and third-party sales declines while giving away its market share to competitors without so much as a fight.
It started with Sea of Thieves, and ended with Halo itself going to PlayStationrobbing Xbox of, potentially, a reason to exist at all. “If PlayStation has its own exclusives and Xbox’s exclusives, why ever buy an Xbox?” Some might ask.
Fast forward to 2026, and things are changing. Incoming Xbox CEO Asha Sharma is intent on giving Xbox exclusives againstarting with Gears of War: E-Day and Clockwork Revolution next year.
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But, at the same time, you can’t help but wonder “why” on paper.
Live playthrough of The Elder Scrolls VI: ******** this morning. The scale and grandeur are incredible. The story is even greater.August 11, 2026
This week, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma teased The Elder Scrolls 6, which seems to be subtitled “Sentinel.”
Following the tease, debate began spreading across social media about whether or not Microsoft should truly go all in and bring the big guns: for Xbox Helixwould it move the needle if Elder Scrolls 6 or Fallout 5 were console exclusive, or would Xbox simply be cutting its nose off to spite its face?
The argument against Xbox console exclusivity
It feels like the era of hardware subsidization is pretty much over. As the bulk of playtime hours go to games like Fortnite, which have very fickle monetization per user, platform holders are increasingly looking to the point of purchase itself to make money. Sony itself said it will no longer sell PlayStation hardware at a loss, and it seems Xbox is following suit.
In that world, it potentially makes far more sense to meet players where they are. With console hardware more expensive than ever, players are less likely than ever to switch platform or buy multiple consoles potentially.
It’s pretty simple, really. By skipping PS5 or Nintendo Switch 2 and taking Elder Scrolls 6 Xbox console exclusive, you’re potentially going to be harming the very expensive game’s margins and profitability, at least on paper. It’s not as if PlayStation’s audience would deliver a 100% attach rate for Elder Scrolls 6 or Fallout 5, but there are many millions of potential customers who would potentially simply skip the game were it not available on their platform of choice.
Is turning The Elder Scrolls 6 and things like Fallout 5 into a “loss leader” something 2026 Xbox and Microsoft is willing to do?
The argument for Xbox console exclusivity
Microsoft and others don’t really really release data on how many users own both an Xbox Series X|S and a PS5, but some analysts suggest it could be up to 50%. Indeed, I’ve been told that a lot of the users Xbox sees across its network show up on different platforms, suggesting that even if Elder Scrolls 6 were exclusive, it would still have a pretty huge addressable audience to the tune of tens of millions even without PlayStation.
If Microsoft were to take Elder Scrolls 6 exclusive, it would send a very strong signal that Xbox is truly in it to win it (particularly if Elder Scrolls 6 is actually very good) and, the sales would come in strong regardless. If users can’t buy it on PS5, they’d probably either grab it via Steam (which I can’t see Xbox ditching any time soon) or their dusty Xbox Series X|S they haven’t had any reason to turn on for several years.
By the time The Elder Scrolls 6 launches, Xbox will also have a range of new Cloud Gaming initiatives in the market place too. Direct-to-WiFi Xbox controllers will be availableshaving a non-trivial amount of latency off proceedings. Elder Scrolls 6 exclusivity might not just be a “loss leader” for Xbox Helix or Xbox Series X|S in that context, it could also be a marketing vehicle for “buy-to-own” Xbox Cloud Gaming, which I presume Xbox will be looking to market more seriously by the time the game launches.
If sales could become an issue under a console exclusivity package, Xbox could also take the step of keeping it off Xbox Game Pass Ultimate for a time, similar to what we’re seeing with Call of Duty — although I imagine such a move would be pretty unpopular.
Poll: What do YOU think?
I can see both sides of the argument. Xbox Helix would have a massive boost in visibility with a tentpole exclusive like The Elder Scrolls 6 for its launch, but I’m not sure if The Elder Scrolls alone would be enough to convince users to drop a potential $1000 dollars on a video game console in this economy.
Xbox would need a steady cadence of high quality exclusives, and a visible strategy that says “if you buy this; you can expect more of these types of exclusives.” The sorta “one offs” here and there with Gears of War: E-Day and Clockwork Revolution aren’t going to cut it, I really feel like they need to be all-in and have all studios shoulder the burden of such a strategy, that would take years potentially to ferment.
The other argument is pretty simple: Xbox might end up just harming its studios’ potential by limiting access arbitrarily. It’s something CEO Satya Nadella touched on in court while explaining to lawmakers why Call of Duty would never go exclusive: the business model revolves around blanket market access.
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POLL: Should ‘The Elder Scrolls 6’ go Xbox console exclusive?https://t.co/X65yuU8Id0 📊 VOTE. People are debating whether or not Microsoft should take tentpole games like The Elder Scrolls 6 or Fallout 5 console exclusive for Xbox Helix … I can see both sides of the…August 14, 2026
The Elder Scrolls is arguably not like that, though … nor are single player games in general. Xbox, PC, and Cloud Gaming should give Elder Scrolls the addressable audience to do gangbusters regardless. I heard Starfield was profitable before hitting PlayStation, for example, and so was Avowed. But is “profitable” enough for Microsoft shareholders, who are already likely annoyed by Xbox’s drag on Microsoft’s overall profit margin?
I think Xbox needs exclusive games to survive, and I think The Elder Scrolls 6 going exclusive would give the platform its best chance to make up lost ground over the previous two generations. I think a healthier Xbox is better for the industry, better for third-party developers, and better for Xbox customers in general. It’s just unclear whether making The Elder Scrolls 6 exclusive actually would lead to a healthier Xbox … since it would need to be part of a wider, and more visible strategy that I’m not sure Microsoft has the competitive spirit for in 2026.
At the end of the day: what would PlayStation or Nintendo do if they owned The Elder Scrolls 6 or Fallout 5? I think we all know the answer …
But, what do YOU think? Vote in our poll above, let us know your thoughts in the comments.
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